What is value?

So what exactly is value?

I’m hoping that what few readers I have or any-one coming across this blog would comment on this.

I understand that to be profitable in gambling you need to earn more money than you lose, hey its the same in everyday life. More needs to be coming in than going out, right. But surely just consistently picking winners regardless of Value will do this right? Apparently not.

Let’s say I’m going to bet on the Man United V Chelsea game (fictional percentages by the way), and I only have access to one bookie. The chance of Man United winning is 50%, Chelsea winning is 30% and the draw is 20%. Now I have, by way of my soon to be excellent spreadsheets, Man United @ 45%, Chelsea @ 40% and the draw @ 15%. The way I’d first look at it is to say well Man United has more chance of winning so I should bet on them. But if I understand correctly I should bet on Chelsea as there is a 10% difference between my percentage and the bookies.

Am I right or am I way of the mark?

So where, if there is any, is the Value and why?

It’s something that I think I have right In my head then I read something about Value and start to question myself and then as a result I confuse myself.

BubblesBrian –

“DO NOT FOLLOW MY PICKS”

Tentative Steps

This past weekend I decided to have a few picks with my first system. These aren’t official picks, so they won’t go on any p/l or be counted in my strike rate. Its just that I was working on my system and planning how to arrange my sheets and these are the ones that got chosen.

I’m not going to post them up as people will say that I’m cheating and just picked some random winners but needles to say I had 4 selections and 2 winners giving me a profit of £3. As mentioned before this system doesn’t even begin to take in to account value and this one never will. My other systems will definitely take value into account though as I fully understand I need it in order to be profitable in the long term.

Its a good feeling knowing that my first picks return a profit, even knowing that there will be times that some or if not all my picks will fail me. I suppose that’s just how it goes and making sure I keep on top things will be the biggest challenge. Seeing my bankroll increase slightly one week then possible decrease remarkably the next and still plugging away in a methodical manner is going to be fun. And I mean in the sense of me discovering how I cope with it, will I be disheartened and give in, will I stick to my plan and not deviate or will I chase the loses? That’s all part of the journey that I’m going to put myself on, I know what I need to do and I believe that I can do it. Yet that’s how everyone starts out, thinking they can cope and come out the other side a winner.

Its going to be interesting to say the least.

BubblesBrian –

“DO NOT FOLLOW MY PICKS”

First off a little word about this line in my signature.

“DO NOT FOLLOW MY PICKS”

Some may feel it’s a bit pointless or over the top. Well I want it on every post so that its there plain to see. Basically I’m saying that if you follow my picks then any loosing streak you may go on is completely down to you. These picks aren’t going to be proofed in any way, I’m not recommending you use them so I don’t want any negative comments along the lines of ” your loosing me money man”, though no doubt ill still probably get some.

Mentioned in the last post I’ll be using 5 online bookies. Without going and looking at who offers the best odds I’ll start with the traditional high street bookies….

William Hill
Ladbrokes
Coral
And then I’ll use
Bet365
BetFred

As mentioned earlier I’ll be keeping my bets small so no bet will be more than £10. My spreadsheet will tell me how much to bet and I’ll try and rotate the biggest bet between the five bookies. Now I’m aware that I may not always get the best odds doing it this way but for now it will do and I will look into it in more detail later on.

I have mentioned the exchanges before and said that for now I will steer clear of them due to my lack of understanding of them. Well it has been recommended that I do in fact start using them. I am starting to read about them and learning about them and by the time I’m ready to go I may indeed start testing them.

Currently I am in the process of making a couple of spreadsheets, one for my first system and one as a stats centre which I will use for any system i may develop. I do like using Excel though it does frustrate me sometimes when its not reacting how I’d like. So I step back for 5 minutes, think about it and the have the “Eureka” moment. Oh how I do love them, even if it turns out that its just my realization that I’ve been doing something wrong.

If someone comments on any of my posts I will aim to answer any questions asked either in a comment or If it needs more space I’ll do a separate post. Though please be patient and don’t think I’m ignoring you. Hey later on it may be that popular (I can dream yeah 🙂 ) that I may not have time to comment or reply to any posts. But rest assured they are all greatly appreciated.

BubblesBrian –

“DO NOT FOLLOW MY PICKS”

Odds

To check odds from my selected bookies I will be using oddschecker (Link Here).

Because I’m only using 5 bookies I’ll create an account and set it up so that only my chosen 5 are shown. Now as I’m going to rotate my highest bets between them it may sometimes mean that I can only choose the best odds for my lowest bet but unfortunately that’s how I’m going to play it for now.

Once I start to take into account Value then I’d imagine I would maybe get some (hell I may not get any) value picks. And again they may suffer from the lack of bookies I’m using and the rotation I’m using. I am paper trading so to be honest it doesn’t matter how much I stake with each bookie but I’m going to try and stick to what I’d do if it was real money.

Though when I do go “Live” I may not have the luxury to have 5 bookies on the go. As I’m a novice there’s no chance I’m going to deposit hundreds of pounds to risk. So it might not be feasible to have a small amount in 5 pots so during the “Trial” period ill keep track on who generally does offer the best odds and maybe go with them until my bankroll increases or until the chosen bookie limits me.

I have taught myself how to work out the returns from fractional odds (I was never good at math’s at school), so that’s what I’ll use. As I understand it odds of 7/1 means that If I bet £1 and I win I will get £8 back. Which is 7 times my stake plus my stake. If I bet the same on 7/2 then I’d get back £4.50 which is my stake/2 *7 plus my stake back (1 / 2 = .5 x 7 = 3.50 +1 = 4.50). So basically your dividing your stake by the figure on the right then times it by the figure on the left and adding your original stake which gives you your return.

Oh and if anyone reads anything that is wrong then please don’t hesitate to point it out to me.

Note: I am using a BlackBerry app to write my posts and as such it appears that any links I put in don’t work. Rest assured that I know what I’m doing when it comes to the internet so when I get chance I will edit the post and fix any broken links.

BubblesBrian –

“DO NOT FOLLOW MY PICKS”

The all important Green All Over

Green All Over is a well known and respected blog in the world of sports betting. Seriously if you have never heard of it then you must have your head buried in the sand pretty darn deep. One that I thoroughly enjoy.

I posted this comment on one of his post…..

“Just added a link to your excellent blog. Not expecting you to link back, it’s entirely up to you.

Love the sense of humor you have and I do hope that I don’t get on the receiving end of your scathing wit :).”

Nice and flattering right? Well never did I think that what he has done would happen now. Take a look at this post here.

At the bottom he has a little write up about little old me, feels great to get a mention on such a huge blog. And now to respond to his points.

“1. Forget about the horse-racing unless you have inside knowledge.

Horse Racing because for some reason that’s the first one that springs to mind when I think of betting.

is not a good reason to bet on horses.”

Well I have decided to focus mainly on Football with the intention of looking into horse racing at a later date. Though the more I think about it the more I am inclined to give it a wide berth. Too many variables and runners to make me think I can get an edge.

“2. Use the exchanges. Yes you are liable if your bet loses, but same as you are at a bookies. Just stick to backing until you get the hang of the lay side of it. Your liability is always made clear before you place the bet.”

I am starting to read up on using the exchanges but I feel that I’m maybe not utilizing it to the full extent if I’m not going to be trading, as I don’t have the time too. But it is definitely something I’m starting to look into a bit more.

“3. What the heck does this mean?

When I finally start my journey with cold hard cash there will be shock at the amount of money I intend to start with, but that’s another post in the future.

Don’t do anything silly please. Put in the time to learn with pennies and build up slowly. If you can’t build up slowly (as I have told O’Dwyer many times) you might as well give up.”

No definitely nothing silly, I mean that the amount I deposit will be small fish compared to what I have read that some people have started with. I know Cassini started out with £100 and my planned balance is ahem less than that.

And finally, not in the order he posted them, we have this beauty which I knew would happen at some point…..

“The blog is called “A Gambler’s Life For Me” and I have one suggestion for Bubbles (aside from adopting a more masculine name – you ever been to a West Ham game?) ……….”

I know the name isn’t quite manly but it’s a mixture of my first born sons first nickname and his middle name, yes it could be better but hey it’s original.

And that’s that, I still can’t quite believe that the man himself has taken the time to comment on my blog.

BubblesBrian –

“DO NOT FOLLOW MY PICKS”

First Comment

Well I have reached the mile of my first comment already. If only I was younger I’d be ecstatic about who its from. Seeing though it’s from none other than santa himself.

“this is a joke blog isnt it, please say it is. i really hope it isnt serious.”

Yup indeed a comment from santa on a blog about gambling, just shows that we know next to nothing about the man of legend. I mean who would have thought that the man that seems so jolly and innocent would be interested in gambling. Not that I would be telling that to my children, though I suppose he does have to do something for the other 364 days of the year. Oh and its not just someone who calls himself santa either, his website is santa.com and his email is from lapland.

But hey at the end of the day a comment is a comment and I will probably get more in the similar style so “ho ho ho”.

BubblesBrian –

“DO NOT FOLLOW MY PICKS”

How……

How will I make/place my Bets?

On a few blogs I read or have read the authors do what is called Trading. This normally involves being online at their exchange of choice during the match. For me this isn’t even an option for me as I work nights and spend the afternoon with family.

So I’m going to be using a standard bookie. Again I could use an exchange where I may get better odds but as I understand it if my bet were to lose I am liable for the winning bet. Let’s say I bet on Man u to beat Chelsea if I lose then I am liable to pay the other person who matched my bet, so instead of just losing my stake I could end up paying more.

Therefore its my aim to have 5 standard online bookies on the go, where I will choose the best odds from. I will also not stake more than a set amount with each bookie as I know they can limit how much you can stake if you win too often. Hopefully by staying under their radar with what I term low bets then ill be ok. Obviously this will impact my potential profit, but for now that’s how ill play it.

Now most of you will have heard the term VALUE, well I am aware of it and I basically know what it is but I’m going to save that for another post. Yet I will say that my first system that I am working on doesn’t take value into account at all.

To determine who to bet on I will be using a spreadsheet made in Excel. I’ll explain a bit about how I decide on the figures to use in my calculations but not in too much detail. Some systems (like my first) will be blatantly obvious so I will explain about them. But the on the later systems the inner workings will be kept to myself.
EDIT – Spelling

BubblesBrian
DO NOT FOLLOW MY PICKS

BubblesBrian –

“DO NOT FOLLOW MY PICKS”

What…..

What will I be gambling on?

I have thought about what sports I want to bet on and I have come up with two. They are Horse Racing and Football. Obviously there are many more sports I could gamble on but these are the two that spring to mind first. Horse Racing because for some reason that’s the first one that springs to mind when I think of betting. Football is because, well it’s Football. Apparently it’s a very popular sport here in good old blighty ;).

I have spent some thought on the matter and have decided to start with Football, I do aim to do both eventually time permitting but for now I’ll start my journey with Football. The reason for this is that basically there are only 3 potential results in game of Football. Win, Lose or Draw. Now you could be smart and say the same about Horse Racing, where the horse either Wins, Places or Loses. But in Horse racing there can be one winner out of a pack of normally more than 5, so that means 5 pieces of stats to digest. Whereas in Football there is only two teams meaning two sets of stats.

Now in Football there are a few markets to choose from. I believe a Market is just a collection of different types of bets. Eg one market will be to choose the winner another market may be to choose the loser. Another market I’ve been reading about is the Draw No Bet (DNB) where if the game ends in a draw then I do believe you get your stake back. Now you all know I’m a novice so for the time being I’m going to just stick with the basic market which is choosing the winner.

BubblesBrian
DO NOT FOLLOW MY PICKS

Introduction – Part 2

There are many blogs out there about gambling on many sports but not many that start the journey from the beginning. And by beginning I mean from the day that the idea formulates in their head, and the journey they take.

This is that blog (well I hope it is), I aim to write about my journey as I aim to become a gambler. Not the addicted type I hope!

I aim to write about the mistakes I make, the lessons I learn and any other thoughts on things. It would be nice to have the odd article from some established bloggers out there or even just their input in the form of comments, but we will see how things go.

Some blogs out there post daily profit/loss figures and some don’t, some just talk about their bets and how they arrived at them as well as anything else they find relevant. I wish to do both, I believe that if this blog takes off and gains readers I think it’s only fair they can follow my progress or lack off. I’m not posting profit/loss figures to say “Look at me! I made £250 last night”, obviously that would be good but no I’m doing it more to say “Look at me doing OK from a starting point of no knowledge at all so it is possible to win at the bookies”.

For a short while I will be paper trading until such a time that I’m confident that I know what I’m doing. I have read and kind off do agree that it can be a mistake as I may be more careful with real money and if I jump in with cold hard cash when my system is doing great and it suddenly goes bad then I may be tempted to chase my losses.

These are just some of the problems I will face in my journey.

Oh and on another note I think it might be prudent of me to start using the following as the signature.

BublesBrian
DO NOT FOLLOW MY PICKS